DataGreat, a platform specializing in tourism intelligence, has conducted a scenario analysis to explore potential impacts on Turkish tourism should tensions between Iran, Israel, and the United States escalate. This analysis, carried out by the company’s founder Alper Tekin using DataGreat’s Crisis Impact Simulator, builds on data from the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025. Turkey’s tourism industry, a critical component of its economy, faces significant exposure to regional conflicts due to its proximity to key markets like Russia, Germany, the United Kingdom, Iran, Bulgaria, and Georgia, all located within approximately 3,000 kilometers of the Iran-Israel axis.
Tourism is a vital sector for Türkiye, contributing over 11 percent to its GDP and supporting nearly three million direct jobs, according to WTTC figures referenced by DataGreat. The platform’s Crisis Impact Simulator employs deterministic scenario rules on data from the WTTC and the World Bank, supplemented by a generative-AI layer that provides explanatory narratives. Importantly, DataGreat ensures its outputs are accurate by only accepting results that match its dataset, a safeguard termed “zero hallucinations” by Tekin.
The analysis outlines three main scenarios. The first, a regional escalation, predicts disruption in airspace and tightened sanctions, potentially leading to decreased European leisure travel to Türkiye, particularly from Germany, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands. However, business travel from the EU is expected to be more resilient. The second scenario, labeled as a Russian outbound shock, envisages a 20 to 35 percent decline in Russian tourists to Türkiye due to increased sanctions and ruble devaluation, with the Antalya and Muğla regions most affected. The third scenario involves fluctuations in the Turkish lira against the US dollar, which might temporarily boost dollar-denominated tourism receipts but could also decrease domestic leisure spending.
Tekin emphasizes that the tool is meant for planning rather than forecasting, allowing tourism officials and businesses to prepare for potential scenarios proactively. The platform offers comprehensive outputs for each scenario, detailing vulnerabilities, mitigation strategies, and key indicators to monitor. Credentialed media can access these detailed reports, along with additional insights from DataGreat’s Risk Radar, which evaluates tourism risks in 42 countries.
DataGreat, operated by Solustiq Yazılım ve Yapay Zeka Teknolojileri A.Ş. and headquartered in Edirne, Türkiye, bases its operations on the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025, encompassing 42 countries and over 26,000 data points. The platform also offers tools like the Persona Builder and Campaign Brief Generator, enhancing its utility in the tourism sector. For more information, Alper Tekin and DataGreat can be contacted directly.